Zambia's Election: Hichilema Faces Lingering Shadow of Deceased Rival Amidst Economic Gains

Zambia prepares for a pivotal election, an event that typically focuses on current policy and future promises. Yet, in a unique twist of fate, the forthcoming vote sees incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema not just battling contemporary political rivals, but also grappling with the enduring legacy and family disputes of his arch-nemesis, the late former president Edgar Lungu.

Quick summary

• President Hakainde Hichilema is seeking a second term, facing a political landscape still defined by his rivalry with the family of deceased former President Edgar Lungu.
• The contentious issue of Lungu's burial, following a legal battle, has become a significant campaign point for the opposition Tonse Alliance.
• Hichilema's administration is accused of authoritarian tendencies by the opposition, though his team vigorously denies this, highlighting repression faced under Lungu's previous rule.
• Despite economic stabilization, reduced inflation, and increased investment, the rising cost of living remains a major concern for Zambian voters.

Why it matters

This election holds significant implications for Zambia's democratic integrity and economic trajectory. The persistent politicization of a former president's death, along with allegations of authoritarianism, tests the nation's commitment to free and fair electoral processes and national reconciliation. For citizens, the outcome will directly impact their economic well-being, influencing everything from daily meal accessibility to education opportunities. Globally, Zambia's stability and governance will affect its attractiveness for foreign investment, particularly in critical sectors like copper mining, vital for green technologies. The political dynamics also offer a stark illustration of how deep-seated rivalries can continue to shape a nation's path long after a key figure has departed.

Background

The rivalry between Hakainde Hichilema and Edgar Lungu dominated Zambian politics for years, marked by intense personal animosity and political struggles. Hichilema, often referred to by his initials HH or nickname Bally, secured a landslide victory in the 2021 presidential elections, unseating Lungu. This win came after a challenging period for Hichilema, who had been arrested multiple times under Lungu's administration, experiencing what many described as severe political repression. Lungu's tenure was also marked by an economic crisis, culminating in Zambia defaulting on its debts in 2020.

The feud, however, did not conclude with Lungu's electoral defeat. Following his death in South Africa in June 2025, a fresh conflict erupted concerning his burial. Lungu's family vehemently opposed Hichilema presiding over a state funeral, leading to a protracted legal battle. The Zambian government sought to compel a state burial, but South Africa's supreme court of appeal ultimately sided with Lungu's family in June, overturning an earlier high court decision. This ruling set the stage for the burial dispute to spill over directly into the current election campaign, becoming a potent symbol of the unresolved political tensions.

The Lingering Shadow of a Rival

As the nation heads to the polls, the ghost of Edgar Lungu undeniably hangs over the proceedings. The Tonse Alliance, a coalition of opposition parties led by Brian Mundubile, has strategically woven the unresolved burial of Lungu into their campaign narrative. Mundubile, a former government chief whip under Lungu, and his running mate Makebi Zulu, who acted as the Lungu family's spokesperson during the legal dispute, have made a central promise: to bring Lungu's body back to Zambia for what they describe as a dignified burial.

This campaign strategy taps into a deep cultural sensitivity within Zambia regarding how the deceased are honored. Christopher Vandome, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, emphasized the importance of showing due respect to the dead in Zambian culture. He noted that any perceived mishandling of this issue, particularly by the incumbent, could make the president appear disrespectful in the eyes of many voters, including some who might otherwise support Hichilema.

Authoritarian Allegations and Counter-Claims

Beyond the burial dispute, the election campaign has been marred by allegations from the Tonse Alliance claiming that Hichilema's government has employed authoritarian tactics. These accusations include raiding opposition offices and detaining 36 members of Mundubile’s campaign team. These claims, if true, would represent a concerning backtrack on democratic freedoms.

Hichilema's ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) has vehemently refuted these claims, turning the accusations back on the previous administration. A UPND spokesperson highlighted the stark contrast with the repression Hichilema himself endured under Lungu's presidency. They pointed out that in 2021, Hichilema had been arrested 15 times, private media outlets like Prime TV and The Post newspaper were shut down, and internet access was blocked on election day. In contrast, they argue, the current opposition campaigns freely across all 10 provinces, no media houses have been closed, and airwaves remain open.

However, independent monitors have reported some irregularities. Tamika Halwiindi, a coordinator at Transparency International Zambia, stated that her organization has recorded instances of police interrupting opposition rallies. She noted that these disruptions, often citing safety concerns, appear to be more biased against opposition and independent candidates compared to the ruling party. Furthermore, activists like Mputa Ngalande of the Fight Inequality Alliance recount being detained for over 12 hours in July 2024 for protesting against power outages, indicating a potential tightening of civil liberties regarding peaceful assembly.

Economic Revival Meets Voter Reality

During his first term, President Hichilema's administration has achieved notable success in stabilizing Zambia's economy. The country, which defaulted on its debts in 2020 under Lungu, has seen its economic landscape improve significantly. Annual inflation has dropped dramatically from 24.6% in July 2021 to 6.5%, and the government introduced free primary and secondary education in 2022. Zambia has also become a more attractive destination for international investment, largely due to its substantial copper deposits, a crucial resource for burgeoning green technologies.

In an effort to appeal to young voters, President Hichilema recently announced an immediate 50% increase in accommodation allowances for university students. However, despite these macroeconomic improvements, the reality for many Zambians remains challenging. World Bank data indicates that the average annual income rose from $1,127 to $1,318 between 2021 and 2025. Yet, over the same period, prices for essential goods and services have nearly doubled. This disparity means that while wages may have seen a modest increase, purchasing power has significantly diminished, leading to widespread dissatisfaction over the cost of living.

Mputa Ngalande captured this sentiment, stating, “What people are asking is: ‘If we are doing well economically, why are we not feeling impact on the ground?’ Because you will find on the ground that it is very difficult to access three meals a day.” This disconnect between official economic figures and the daily struggles of ordinary citizens poses a significant hurdle for Hichilema's re-election bid, as nearly 8.8 million registered voters also prepare to choose MPs and local councillors.

Hichilema's Path to a Second Term

Despite the challenges and lingering political shadows, President Hichilema's prospects for winning a second term are considered high. His administration has navigated the country through a period of significant economic uncertainty and has attracted crucial foreign investment. However, as Christopher Vandome observed, Hichilema's own complex and often difficult personal lived experience in Zambian politics might be contributing to an insecurity that, paradoxically, could count against him.

This insecurity, Vandome suggests, could be expressed through actions or perceptions that inadvertently dent his image, even when such measures might not be strictly necessary. Navigating the delicate balance between maintaining order, fostering economic growth, and upholding democratic freedoms—all while a deceased rival's legacy is actively used against him—will define not only the outcome of this election but also the tenor of his potential second term.

Qnews24h insight

Despite Hakainde Hichilema's tangible economic achievements and a clear break from the severe authoritarianism of the previous regime, his campaign is unable to fully escape the shadow of his predecessor, Edgar Lungu. The politicization of Lungu's death by the opposition, coupled with even minor perceived authoritarian tendencies by Hichilema's government, indicates a deeply polarized political landscape where past grievances continue to hold significant sway. This suggests that Hichilema, despite his own history of democratic struggle, may find himself forced to constantly defend against comparisons to the very repression he fought against, risking alienation of a crucial segment of the electorate. His past experiences, while shaping his resilience, seem to have instilled a cautiousness that, ironically, might be hindering his public image and complicating his path to consolidating a truly unified and forward-looking Zambia.

Sources

• The Guardian

FAQ

Who are the main candidates in the Zambian election?

The incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema is running for a second term. His main challenger is Brian Mundubile, leading the Tonse Alliance of opposition parties.

What role does former President Edgar Lungu play in the current election, despite his death?

Edgar Lungu, who died in 2025, continues to be a central figure due to an ongoing political feud between his family and President Hichilema's government over his burial. The opposition Tonse Alliance has made the promise of a dignified burial for Lungu a key part of their campaign, tapping into cultural sensitivities.

How has Zambia's economy performed under President Hichilema?

Under Hichilema's term, Zambia's economy has stabilized significantly, with annual inflation falling from 24.6% to 6.5%. The government has also made primary and secondary education free and attracted increased international investment, especially in copper mining. However, the cost of living has nearly doubled, leading to voter concerns despite a modest rise in average income.