DRC's Constitutional Crossroads: Tshisekedi's Reform Fuels 2028 Succession Battle Amidst Eastern

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) finds itself at a pivotal juncture, where a high-stakes political battle over presidential succession is intertwining dangerously with a devastating armed conflict in its eastern territories. With President Felix Tshisekedi's current mandate set to conclude in 2028, a contentious push for constitutional reform by his administration has ignited widespread apprehension among opposition forces, who fear it could be a veiled attempt to circumvent existing term limits and allow him to seek a third term.

Quick summary

• DRC President Felix Tshisekedi's administration is advocating for constitutional reforms, triggering concerns that the process could enable him to pursue a third term in office, defying the current two-term limit by 2028.
• The Congolese Parliament passed legislation in June outlining conditions for a referendum, which, despite Constitutional Court review, was asked by Tshisekedi to be reconsidered in light of judicial observations, delaying its finalization.
• A broad opposition coalition, C64, has mobilized nationwide demonstrations, invoking Article 64 of the constitution to resist any perceived attempt to extend Tshisekedi's mandate through constitutional manipulation.
• This internal political struggle is unfolding amidst a severe armed conflict in eastern DRC involving the M23 group and the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), raising profound questions about the feasibility and legitimacy of the 2028 elections.

Why it matters

The constitutional debate in the DRC holds profound implications for the nation's democratic trajectory, stability, and its ongoing struggle with internal conflict. A perceived attempt to alter term limits could severely undermine the fragile democratic institutions established in the post-Mobutu era, setting a dangerous precedent for future leaders and eroding public trust in the rule of law. For ordinary Congolese citizens, particularly those in the war-torn east, the political wrangling in Kinshasa is seen as a diversion from urgent humanitarian and security crises, threatening to deepen existing societal divisions and further destabilize an already volatile region. The uncertainty surrounding the 2028 elections, particularly if parts of the country remain under armed group control, could plunge the DRC into prolonged political gridlock, deter much-needed foreign investment, and exacerbate the humanitarian catastrophe. Ultimately, this battle tests the resilience of the Congolese constitution and the commitment of its political elites to a peaceful, democratic transfer of power.

Background

The current political tension in the Democratic Republic of Congo is deeply rooted in its constitutional framework, which explicitly limits the president to two five-year terms. This provision, along with the duration and number of terms, is deemed immutable, protected from ordinary constitutional revision. President Felix Tshisekedi, who first took office in January 2019 following a controversial election, is constitutionally due to step down in 2028. However, in May, remarks from Tshisekedi suggesting he would accept a third term if the 'Congolese people desired it' immediately ignited a firestorm of speculation and concern among opposition factions. These fears were not unfounded, echoing historical precedents in other African nations where leaders have sought to extend their stay in power through constitutional amendments.

The dispute escalated into a tangible legislative process in June when the Congolese Parliament passed a law outlining conditions for organizing a national referendum. This legislation introduced the concept of a 'constituent assembly' followed by a referendum in the event of a 'major dysfunction' of state institutions, a clause critics immediately flagged as a potential loophole for altering term limits. In July, the Constitutional Court reviewed the legislation, deeming it largely compliant but raising certain concerns about its provisions. Following the court's observations, on August 10, President Tshisekedi formally requested that the National Assembly and Senate reconsider the legislation, signaling that a fresh deliberation would be on the agenda for the parliamentary session in September. This procedural back-and-forth has set the stage for a critical confrontation, as opponents consolidate their efforts to resist what they view as a constitutional coup attempt.

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The ongoing constitutional standoff in the DRC transcends a mere legalistic debate; it represents a dangerous convergence of political maneuvering, the fragility of democratic norms, and the profound destabilization caused by armed conflict. While President Tshisekedi's administration frames the proposed reforms as a necessary institutional overhaul, the timing and the specific mechanisms being considered—particularly the 'major dysfunction' clause and the path to a referendum—are widely interpreted by the opposition as a strategic attempt to bypass the entrenched two-term limit. This perception is exacerbated by a lack of widespread public understanding regarding the specifics of the proposed changes, leaving citizens vulnerable to misinformation and fueling mistrust in the political process. The simultaneous conflict in the east, which has effectively fractured state control over significant territories, injects an additional layer of complexity, making any legitimate, inclusive constitutional discourse incredibly challenging. The government's proposed national dialogue, while potentially a pathway to de-escalation, faces a critical credibility test given Tshisekedi's declared exclusions, suggesting that a truly national consensus remains elusive and the nation risks deepening its divisions at a moment requiring unity.

The Contours of Constitutional Debate

At the heart of the current political maelstrom lies the legislative process surrounding a potential referendum. The parliamentary bill, passed in June, sought to establish the framework for convening a constituent assembly, a body typically tasked with drafting or significantly revising a constitution, and subsequently holding a national referendum. The trigger mechanism for this drastic measure, as stipulated in the legislation, would be a 'major dysfunction' within state institutions. Critics, however, argue that such a broad and undefined criterion could easily be manipulated to justify sweeping constitutional changes, including those targeting presidential term limits, which are currently enshrined as unalterable provisions.

The Constitutional Court’s subsequent review in July provided a temporary pause, offering legal validation for the general principle while simultaneously highlighting specific concerns. This nuanced ruling led President Tshisekedi to request a re-examination by Parliament, a move that could be interpreted either as a genuine attempt to address legal ambiguities or a strategic delay tactic. The National Assembly’s commitment to revisit the legislation in September underscores the fluid nature of this political chess match, where each procedural step carries significant weight and is scrutinized for its underlying motives.

Opposition Mobilizes: The C64 Coalition

In response to the perceived threat to constitutional order, a powerful and vocal opposition coalition has emerged, christened C64, or the Article 64 coalition. Their name is a direct reference to Article 64 of the DRC's constitution, a foundational clause that explicitly empowers every Congolese citizen to resist any individual or group that seizes or maintains power through unconstitutional means. This article serves as a powerful rallying cry, providing a legal and moral justification for their stance against any attempts to extend President Tshisekedi’s tenure beyond 2028.

C64 has not limited its resistance to political pronouncements. The coalition has actively called for a nationwide mobilization, with significant demonstrations planned for September 15. Protesters in Kinshasa are expected to converge on the Palais du Peuple, the seat of Parliament, making a deliberate statement by targeting the institution at the center of the legislative process. These planned protests follow earlier, sizable demonstrations in eastern cities like Goma and Bukavu on July 28, where thousands voiced their opposition to any constitutional changes aimed at prolonging Tshisekedi's stay in office. Jean-Marc Kabund, a prominent opposition figure, has unequivocally stated that no constitutional revision or legal maneuver should be permitted to bypass the existing term limits, warning that such actions could deepen national divisions, especially amidst the ongoing conflict.

Eastern Front: A War's Shadow Over 2028

The constitutional dispute in Kinshasa is not unfolding in a vacuum; it is inextricably linked to the devastating armed conflict raging in the eastern provinces of the DRC. The M23 rebel group, operating under the broader Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) coalition, has seized vast swathes of territory, including major cities like Goma and Bukavu. This prolonged conflict, which the Congolese government attributes to Rwandan support—a charge Kigali denies—has created a complex and volatile environment that fundamentally complicates any national political process.

President Tshisekedi himself has acknowledged the profound challenges posed by the eastern conflict to the integrity of the 2028 elections, cautioning that a credible vote might be impossible to organize while significant parts of the country remain outside government control. This assertion, while seemingly pragmatic, also raises concerns among critics who worry it could be used as another justification for extending mandates or delaying democratic transitions. The perspective from the east is particularly stark: Gentil Mulume, a civil society activist in Goma, articulated that any constitutional amendment extending Tshisekedi's term would simply not be recognized in territories controlled by M23 and the AFC. This sentiment highlights a deeper divide, where continued rule from Kinshasa, especially if achieved through contested means, could be perceived as further domination, fueling calls for self-determination and potentially fragmenting the nation.

Public Understanding and National Dialogue

A critical, yet often overlooked, aspect of the current constitutional debate is the level of understanding among ordinary Congolese citizens regarding the proposed changes. As Kevin Kalala, a mobile-credit retailer in Kinshasa, candidly expressed, many citizens lack sufficient knowledge of the constitution to form an informed opinion. He emphasized the state's responsibility to educate its populace on existing constitutional provisions, the rationale behind proposed changes, and their potential benefits. This gap in public awareness creates fertile ground for political manipulation and undermines the legitimacy of any constitutional reform process, particularly one culminating in a referendum.

In an attempt to address the rising tensions and seek a path forward, President Tshisekedi has announced plans for an 'inclusive national dialogue.' This initiative is intended to bring together political parties, civil society organizations, and religious groups to discuss the nation's future. While the date and precise format of these talks remain unspecified, Tshisekedi has already drawn lines, ruling out participation from individuals he accuses of siding with Rwanda or the armed rebellion. This exclusionary approach has, predictably, met with criticism. Martin Fayulu, a prominent opposition leader and former presidential candidate, has advocated for a more comprehensive dialogue that includes figures such as former President Joseph Kabila and Corneille Nangaa, the political leader of the AFC, arguing that their participation is crucial for genuine national reconciliation and legitimacy.

A Nation at a Crossroads

The Democratic Republic of Congo stands at a critical juncture, navigating a complex interplay of political ambition, constitutional interpretation, and national security challenges. The outcome of the constitutional debate will not only determine the rules of succession for 2028 but will also significantly impact the DRC's ability to achieve lasting peace and democratic stability. As political analyst Emmanuel Bugama noted, the nation is indeed entering one of its most decisive periods, grappling with an armed conflict while simultaneously engaging in a high-stakes constitutional confrontation. The fundamental question transcends whether the constitution will change; it is whether Congo's diverse political forces can forge a consensus on the foundational rules that govern their shared future, particularly as President Tshisekedi's mandate draws to a close amidst such profound uncertainty.

Sources

• DRC’s constitutional battle: The fight over the 2028 vote | News | Al Jazeera

FAQ

What is the core issue regarding the DRC's 2028 elections?

The core issue is President Felix Tshisekedi's proposed constitutional reforms, which opposition groups fear are a pretext to circumvent the current two-term limit, allowing him to seek a third presidential term in 2028. The current constitution explicitly protects the number and length of presidential terms from revision.

What is the role of the C64 coalition in this constitutional dispute?

The C64 coalition is the main opposition group actively campaigning against any attempts to extend President Tshisekedi's mandate. Named after Article 64 of the DRC's constitution (which calls on citizens to oppose anyone who takes power unconstitutionally), C64 is organizing nationwide mobilizations and demonstrations to resist what they perceive as efforts to alter presidential term limits.

How does the conflict in eastern DRC impact the constitutional debate and future elections?

The ongoing armed conflict in eastern DRC, particularly the M23 rebellion and the Alliance Fleuve Congo's control over significant territories, severely complicates the constitutional debate and the prospect of credible 2028 elections. President Tshisekedi has warned that holding elections might be difficult if fighting continues, while civil society in the east states that any unconstitutional extension of his term would not be recognized in rebel-held areas, deepening national divisions and posing challenges to national cohesion.